"No growth for four years would really be a terrible return. Perhaps it would make more sense to expect performance since then along the lines of historical norms, once the market has finished overcorrecting."
I agree with this. If indeed this happens, we take 10% annual compounding from the 1997 peak, we would be at around 2400 on the nas by summer, and make our way back to 5000, in 7.5 years. This would be in the upper range, though.
Whatever type of silly theories we come up with, we are seeing bargains we haven't seen since the window of pain in October 1998, and before that to spring of 1996.Another 10% on the nas and we will see csco at a trailing pe of about 20, intc to a pe of 15 on 2000 earnings, orcl at a pe of about 20, I think. It's clear to me that at that point we close our eyes and and buy, and walk away for about 3 years. And not watch until our neighbor says something like, "did you see Brocade today? I am making a TON on that one." |
