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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services
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To: BigBull who wrote (88460)3/9/2001 6:14:40 PM
From: isopatch  Read Replies (2) of 95453
 
NG has, so far, been the downside leader.

Roebear and I have been talking about the mid $4s per mcf as a good support level for NG. We are only about 50 cents from that right now on the charts after dropping 50% from the hi at the turn of the year. So it's not surprising some of the NG E&Ps have had their 1st hard bounce in the Intermediate Term bottoming process.

My read is we will test the recent lows in many of the stocks, perhaps making nominal new lows in some to allow the MMs to run the sell stops(ggg). In fact, that looks very likely next week (in tandem with a full meltdown in the broad stock market).

For the sake of discussion let's say that NG itself goes to new lows. BUT...the NG E&Ps fail to confirm, creating a strong bullish divergence. I will be adding under those circumstances.

As for crude? Looks like it's going into the next phase of its catch-up decline with NG .

Not expecting as large a %age drop as we've had in NG since you, me, and Slider really pounded the table about the top in early Jan (and have received unending appreciation for our efforts, LOL)

On the other hand, don't expect the necessary bearish sentiment indicative of a major bottom in crude oil surfacing until, at the very least, the OPEC basket violates the lower end of their stated band and refuses to pop back into it for a month...or more.

WTI should sustain $22/bbl for a similar period of time as part of that process.

All JMVVHO.

Isopatch
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