Rock nj: The reason people are not "buying on the major dip" is because they did this for most of 2000 and lost a lot of money doing so. If you guess the bottom incorrectly and it then declines 20% from your entry point, you then have to see it appreciate 25% to return to your entry point. Also, for every 10% the NASDAQ declines, the high-profile NASDAQ stocks lose 20-30%, particularly the ones still sporting high PE ratios (JNPR, BRCD, CIEN, MERQ, NTAP, etc.).
It is highly unlikely that the NASDAQ will run away from us on the upside. The NASDAQ will take the better part of a year to recover and for companies to unwind all of their excess inventory. The January rate cuts won't even affect the market until August or September.
One of several painful lessons I learned last year is that individual stocks do not swim successfully upstream against the deluge of a NASDAQ bear market. Regardless of their PE's and how cheap you think they are, they will go lower if the NASDAQ goes lower. I have "listened to the market" this year and have not forced anything; it has saved me from further devastating losses. When every major NASDAQ CEO is telling you that they are not selling their products and have no clue as to when orders will pick up, listen to what they are saying. I did, and I sold all of my tech stocks at the end of January. They will let you know when it is time to buy their companies again. |
