Hi West, here are a few "catalysts", the first as you mentioned, we are oversold and we had our first reading of a tic of -1000 or worse since the beginning of the year (we turned on that one, thanks to the Fed's).
The second catalyst is Japan, they are getting into "end of the year period", and if you think we have PPT's, they have them galore (they are trying to legislate a special PPT of their own, involving the poor old retirees putting their good savings in a bad market). before April first, the banks absolutely need to have the Nikkei above at least 13500, probably closer to 14,000, or else, they go bust, pure and simple. Thus the Asian markets are going to be manipulated up and strangely, that will support all markets (don't ask what happen two three weeks after that exercise has been completed).
Third catalyst: Our Friendly NY Fed open market operations has been busy since the beginning of the year injecting liquidity into the system (I wonder what do they know and fear of?), I have seen only 2 "soaking operation" in the last two months vs about 15 to 20 liquidity injection operations (yesterday and today totaled a cool $8 B). On its way to money heaven, that money (or some of it) will find its way into the equities market very soon.
The fourth catalyst in about a week and half (and it will start and impact the market early next week) is the FOMC (an extension of the third catalyst) meeting March 20th.
A fifth catalyst, which should continue the rally I see going until about April 16th (from either today or early next week's lows) is the arrival of massive retirement funds into the market in the first two weeks of January.
However, after April 16th or so, all these catalysts disappear and are replaced with the naked truth of the first quarter earnings, and thus my peak on or about April 16th. My target is 2650 on the Naz with an outside chance at the major overhead resistance at 2850 (the second number could be operative if today we indeed put in the intraday low at 2042 (interestingly, I had the low of that leg at 2000 plus minus 2% or between 1960 to 2040, I still might be right if we open down sharply Monday).
Zeev |
