VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED

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To: Voltaire who wrote (32951)	3/10/2001 2:49:53 AM
From: limtex	Read Replies (2) of 65232

Hi Vol - Looks very much to me like this thing is only just beginning. Why? Well if INTC says:- Across all their businesses. Global No end in sight This is not the end of revenue reductions Revenues down 25% this qtr. Well what are we going to see from INTC for the rest of the year nad indeed next year. Some have posted that it is just the competition effect of AMD and its new chip but this kind of drop is truly awesome in a company that size. Its one thing to have slower growth, its another to have no growth but to have one of the four horsemen have their business cut by 25% in one qtr is quite frankly awesome. What are we going to hear from CSCO? or HP, HP,MOT,NT,LU, etc etc. There is going to be a line of major companies to get their announcments out on Thursday nights. Why Thursday nights? Seems that the biggies are made on that night. We've had ORCL, NT and now INTC. And what about P/Es in this climate. How will anyone justify anything more than single figures with businesses being reduced in size by this order of magnitude every qtr. Vol I posted here a couple of months ago that we had all of us totaly misread the seriousness of what we were seeing and we had underestimated Mr Gs determination to crush the Naz. My guess is that he still believes that he did and is doing the right thing. I say is doing because by keeping interest rates at todays level in the face of an incipient depression is as bad as having them where they were lasy March. Depression you say?? Yes I'm afraid I can't see it stopping now. Smashing the economy is much easier than building it. This obsession with destroying the Naz focusing on non-existent inflation and the job market last year has in the process blwon up the US and probably the World economy. you just can't turn it around that easy when you have a situation like this. The job figures yesterday are an abberation in my view. No-one who walks around without a keeper believes the economy is marching along creating new jobs while the only growth engine namely tech is being reduced by levels that INTC announced. And why did we all get excited about tech? Greed? Well yes of course we ar all greedy and no point in denying it but above that we all saw that these tech companies were creating a whole new world. OK there was too much dot-com but dot-com wasn't everything. Look at all the great companies producing stuff that is going to make life far more productive and interesting and informative for all humanity. Yes all that innovation is going to come to a grinding halt because the IPO business will also stop. There are those who say Mr G is brilliant and is the best Fed Chairman ever and those who, like me, say the opposite. The brilliant camp say that he has done better than anyone else could have done and you can't stop depressions and collapses. Well OK then why have him there at all. We can't do much worse! In my humble opinion he is responsible for this. I havebeen saying so for tnearly a year. Mt first post saying that he would destroy the economy was last April. I was called Chicken Little and all sorts of names. I did't follow my instinct becuase I too had Hope, I have somewhat less today. Best regards, L

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