IS THIS JUST A BUMP IN THE ROAD OR.... It would seem fromthe current enviroment then we are heading into a depression. But could this problem in the TECH world and in our economy work its way through? And could we all ready be out of the worst and into the better and not know it?
My answer is simple....YES. With Regulation F.D. It forces many companies to warn now where before thet would not. What I mean is let the problem work its way through the channels. Come the end of the 3rd quarter iy will be clear what I mean, but we are no way near past conditions that warranted such a price depreciation.
So those who are shorting, and it looks like 85% of the NASD traders are, say we are heading to 1800, 1500 and or 1200 but I am a firm believer that we have seen the near term bottom today. I base this on sevaral factors but perhaps the best indicator is overall sentiment. We are at the JUST SELL< GET ME OUT< I CANNOT TAKE IT ANYMORE stage. What many investors fail to see is we have a SHORTERS BOTTOM that started probably at 2800 and was doubled down the last 2 weeks.
Is anyone admitting we should rally off this level back to 95 trend line? I for one was shorting at the top,long in January, and short at the beginning of Feb, but I went long 2 weeks too early. The current scenerio feels a lot like Fall of 98, and we are actually close to that range.
I believe and have since sept that 1800-2000 would be the bottom in 2001, and I am sticking with the 2049. But we are now setting up for a enormous squeeze to 2350 range then a slow but steady move to the 3100-3300 range if not higher by early June. Late in the summer we could revisit the 2000 range but I'm just not sure yet.
This is based on both VALUATION and SENTIMENT. Far too many people think we are now heading for 0-negative growth, but I just don't see that. I saw a dramatic slow down in early December that exhaberated and already problematic inventory GLUT in the SEMI's, but we are now hearing about the worst, and I believe its not what many perceive.
Good luck to all, and I for one find too many stocks are shorted to the max to allow this state of the NASD to last more then another MORNING! |
