JDS Uniphase (JDSU) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU)

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To: pat mudge who wrote (19305)	3/10/2001 10:05:38 AM
From: gbh	Read Replies (2) of 24042

Second half? Maybe second half of 2002. And I emphasize the "maybe". Anyone still saying things turn in 3Q or 4Q '01 is out of touch. I said in Dec that JDSU could easily go to 25-30, Message 15074355 and I was berated by the perma-bulls. This is still a great company. The unquestionable leader. But even at today's price, its still overvalued given the outlook for the next 1-2 years. The NAZ is going much lower. And the big-cap NAZ stocks will lead the way. Traditional valuation methods are back in vogue. That doesn't bode well for anything selling at even the smallest premium to its growth rate. And with bascially zero visibility, anyone who is quoting a 20% or 30% growth rate is out to lunch. I think we get at least a couple more quarters of warnings. Then things bottom in a range for a couple more quarters. Then things come back to a more normal growth outlook. Then, good companies can grow at 20-25%, along with their stock prices. I think JDSU bottoms at 15-20 in about 6 months. And anyone still hoping for the V bottom we had in '98 will be disappointed. Its quite reasonable to think that JDSU is trading at 25-30 in 2-3 years, after that 15-20 bottom 6 months from now. What do you think?

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