Mariner--- some of his comments regarding valuation might be worthy of reconsideration in the context of gorilla gaming in the future.
Uncle Frank---We've been trying, mariner, but so far we've only been able to identify peaks and bottoms in the rear view mirror, which isn't very useful. I'm still waiting for someone to propose a metric that will pass scrutiny.
Uncle Frank, I have noticed that when we get into this discussion, your statements often seem to tie investors' concern for valuations to the general failure of market timing. For example, you follow up Mariner's statement that it might be worthwhile for the thread to take a more serious look at the valuation problem with the statement that we can only identify peaks and bottoms in the rear view mirror. But do these two statements really have anything to do with each other?
Warren Buffet is is the most successful investor over the last forty years that I am aware of. Some items he has in common with Gorilla gaming are buy quality companies with a sustainable, competitive advantage, long term buy and hold, and don't try to time the market. But he has at least one more extremely important investment criteria that Gorilla gaming and this thread fail to give its due---and that is to buy companies at a discount to their intrinsic value, to buy companies when their stock prices have a margin of safety. Does this last criteria make him a market timer? Hardly. Buffet will buy a stock at a discount to intrinsic value fully realizing that the stock could go much lower in the short term, but he doesn't care, because he knows in the long run the stock will come back to its intrinsic value.
I am not advocating the thread change its nature to become a numbers centered, valuation discussion group, because I think the thread already has its hands full trying to identify technology companies with sustainable, competitive advantages. Accomplishing the above goal is a huge undertaking in itself and I am very greatful to have found a discussion group that takes on this objective. In addition, I believe it would be very difficult for thread members to agree on a intrinsic value for our companies. Yet I find the tendency to dismiss people's valuation concerns with the statements that 1. gorillas are almost always undervalued and 2. that concern for valuation is somehow related to the general failure of market timing to be extremely misleading and disconcerting statements. I just wish the thread leadership, rather than tending to dismiss valuation concerns, would acknowledge the extreme risk in buying a gorilla at any time at any price without regard to valuation. (JMHO)
Best, Huey |
