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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (78304)	3/10/2001 10:44:23 AM
From: UnBelievable	Read Replies (1) of 436258

Zeev - Good to see you posting here a bit more lately. I think your analysis is pretty spot on. I do think we may see a day or two with some more down after which we head back up for about a month. Although I say that with a new found appreciation of the fact is on any given day the market does what it gets paid to. This would seem to be the "normal" alternative. And the one I am inclined to play. I do have some concerns though: I am concerned about the ability of Japan to get and keep the Nikkei to the levels you describe. Also I think the mark to market requirement associated with the year end is going to be troublesome for many banks especially if the market is only able to attain the lower end of your range. It also wouldn't surprise me if some of the assets which will be used to prop up the Nikkei are not currently in US Equity markets and will need to be repatriated for the purpose. This would tend to offset the gains in the US markets that might be associated with a gain in the Nikkei. The recent, albeit denied, activity to devalue the Yen may be part of the effort to make the repatriation as efficient as possible. The second concern I have is that, while I am sure there will be some effort to rally into the Fed meeting, that there is no possibility of good news. I think .50 and a continuing bias to fostering growth is built in. I'm sure given the recent CPI, PPI, and Jobs data there is part of the Board which would like to do .25 but may be reluctant to do so if the market remains weak. If in fact we begin an up leg early next week that might dampen concerns about the market and we could actually get .25. This smaller rate cut, if it were to take place (and I am hard pressed to see it given AG's attempt to ensure that he dies popular) would probably be enough to cause the market to give up whatever gains it made prior to the meeting. The most troubling and problematic concern for me though is trying to get a handle on the type of structural damage which has been inflicted by the decline since last year. One example of this is the increased, quantifiable, volatility currently in the market, which is a key consideration in the risk management programs upon which large institutional investors rely, could potentially provide some drag, especially in conjunction with capital bases that have been eroded more than had been anticipated over the last year. Another example might be the fact that investors who have managed to maintain capital to invest have learned to be quick or dead. It would seem that the corrective (down)legs within the upcoming corrective (up) cycle may be more powerful than such corrective legs usually are. All that said, we are still far from a bottom and the only way we are going to get to the real bottom is by going up. So hopefully up we go.

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