Yet I find the tendency to dismiss people's valuation concerns with the statements that 1. gorillas are almost always undervalued and 2. that concern for valuation is somehow related to the general failure of market timing to be extremely misleading and disconcerting statements. I just wish the thread leadership, rather than tending to dismiss valuation concerns, would acknowledge the extreme risk in buying a gorilla at any time at any price without regard to valuation. (JMHO)
bit of a late hit, huey, since the charge was more valid a year ago than it has been recently, and the negative consequences of that mistake (to the extent that it was one) have been pretty plain for all to see, and feel.
Moreover, I don't think it's true that thread leadership has conflated market timing with valuation. What has been said, it seems to me, is that it is difficult to translate the qualities that distinguish Gorillas from other companies into the sort of traditional, highly quantified valuation metrics that valuation junkies usually rely on. This has meant that even some of the most serious students of valuation around here--Merlin and Lyre, for example--have found it difficult to use their valuation skills to pick good entry and exit points consistently.
Anyway, I think the best way to move forward on the subject is for those who do think valuation matters, and who have metrics that they believe are sensible and can legitimately be blended into gorilla gaming, and who have used their skills to move in and out successfully in the past (as opposed to simply buying in when they had the money and then riding the tiger from then on), to show us how it's done.
Although his tone can be a bit clinical for my taste, for example, I think Jacob Snyder has been a good example of someone who has always been open about his thought processes in this area and the decisions they have led to, and thus contributed to general edification. Merlin has often tried to apply his valuation thoughts to individual stocks in public as well. I understand why folks like Pirah prefer to teach fishing rather than proffer fish, but it's most helpful for the thread if valuation junkies show their work for all to see, and show how it can improve their investing results over time. All of us would like to make money, obviously, and demonstrations of a better mousetrap for doing so are always appreciated.
tekboy/Ares@innumerate.pov |
