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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU)

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To: MIKE REDDERT who wrote (19336)	3/10/2001 11:52:24 AM
From: larry	Read Replies (2) of 24042

Mike, The problem is that rate cut cannot save everything. The NAZ bubble a is looking more and more like the Nikkei bubble and it's probably going to end up being even worse than that. Coupled with the fact that the final stage of the bubble was inflated by the panic IT spending due to the Y2K delay and the maximum accounting tricks used by market darlings to boost bottom and even top line growth with stock market gains, it's safe to say that we have seen the peak of earning number from the likes of CSCO for the next 5-10 years. Rate cut sure can stimulate spending to a certain degree, but you won't want to lend $$$ to customers who are already in deep shit to buy your products, right? Also I noticed that the US household saving rate is approaching zero right now. Do you want it to go to deep negative territory? The issue is much more complicated than just a simple rate cut. Japan's rate is 0% and the Nikkei is still making 12-year low and there is no sight as how low it can go. BTW, the market irrational exeburence is still abundant because fools like Abby are still predicting a heafty 25-30% gains on S&P 500 within a year and lots of cautious bulls are still expecting a double within a year or two. Does she, or do they ever admit that the NAZ 5k and YAHOO! at 140 billion cap were among the biggest bubbles that God ever iamgined? BTW, 50 basis point cut and that's probably all you can ask from AG for the post Christmas gift. If you are planning to trade on the expected short cover fueled rate rally, be careful. In most likely case you will be deeply disappointed and find yourself under water in the long run (unless you trade quickly). They just never learn.:( larry!

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