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Zeev, you have turnips, i have my propeller beanie -g-
i my beanie's opinion -g-
During late january, i described the jan bounce as a dead cat bounce where the a/d bottomed like september 98, we made a bear flag into the september fomc meeting and did the final leg down in the 98 lows.
deju vu all over again.
no doubt the sentiment has been bearish lately and fooling many sentiment followers in thinking we have made a selling climax on each down grade from the csco earnings, to the nortel warning, to the now intel downgrade.
if you pan down to the weekly nasdaq new highs new lows, you have a perfect elliot pattern in the new lows, with the first leg down into april may 00, then a perfect three drives to a bottom off the september top into the dec/jan bottom.
now we should be in the fifth wave down from the march 00 top, this is the reverse of the rally off the late jan 00 low (or could also be compared to the rally off the october 15,99 low), this is the bearish capitulation phase.
i doubt we will see anything but consolidation patterns until we get the final selling climax on this leg down.
i can't really get an elliot count that works on this leg down, reminds me exactly of the rally off the october 99 lows that just had minor reactions to the trend and turned around, not allowing someone to find a real place to label a countertrend rally.
as i've been saying during the bear blow-off phase, as during the bull blow-off phase, those trading against the trend can lose money real quick if you don't carry stops, a lot of these stocks that ipo'd in the last couple of years and then went to $2-400, could be single digit stocks at the bottom (a lot of em already are, but there could be more)
all IMBO, of course -g- |
