Hello David,
I do lurk on your THDO board, if you go
back a few years you will notice my
posts, i once owned the stock. I was
a true believer of Trip, i enjoyed
anything that New World released and
thought at the time the on-line game
world Meridan was a hit. I did sell the
stock for a small profit and have never
bought it back.
The reasons were i felt like ATVI, that
they were way late to adapt to the console
market. I was a PC gamer and had a big
disdain for "twitchers" and what they
called a game. This attitude cost me
a bunch, not buying THQI cheap for one
and not holding THDO when they made a
penny with the Army Men franchise on
the consoles.
THDO did just go cash flow negative i
see,i guess the question would be how much
more will Trip spend?. I don't like the
wait and see on the X-Box either. Throw
in the fact that Army Men are way over
extended,Might and Magic (either Heroes
or the RPG's) might be getting stale, and
the reliance on the PSX 2 would have me
worried if i owned the stock.
I personally think the companys with
the nightmares for balance sheets will
be toast soon enough. They have no cash
for licenses,have serious bank debt
and some, TTWO for example are actually
resorting to issuing more paper to buy
content. I don't feel anybody will be
buying anybody in this enviorment, it's
alot eaiser for the 3 horsemen to just
simply buy what they want when the
music stops At least with THDO you
have Trips cash, the rest of them are
either cutting to the bone, or actually
selling content to raise cash(TTW0)just
to keep going.
Whatever the outcome like Scot i've been
in most of these stocks(long or short) for
years. I'm really baffled by all this,
if you read the posts from alot of the
other oldtimers you will notice the
same sentiment. If you need to be in this
sector there's 3 stocks to own, the rest
are good for trading, but i would't
expect any of them even the French controlled
ones to do anything like the horsemen
have.
It all looks like another bubble to me,
but you can't fight the tape. I've noticed
alot of the oldtime THQI longs are now
short,i might start leaning that way
around E3 myself on all 3 of the horsemen.
Meanwhile if ERTS continues to be bought
with that multiple, i'd say the trend
is up for the big 3.
Tough choice with any of the laggards here,
if i was stuck in any of them i'd rather it
be THDO, you do have a veteran running
the show with plenty of cash, that's a
major plus:-) When i owned THDO all's we
really talked about was buyout buyout,that's
all any of us ever talked about when the
stocks were in the toilet. Nothing ever
happened, except reverse splits and the
French. Now the stocks are at 52 week highs
and the buyout rumors will make them go
higher, hopefully it will float your
boat too, when they all realize it's not
happening they will all run to the other
side and tip the boat over. I had one
company bought that i made a profit on
in all these years, Microprose that was
a lifetime ago.
Alex |
