Jim,
I have to admit the man on the street is discouraged, but I think the fund managers are not. I talked to my broker yesterday who call up a high tech fund manager who was down only 25 percent for the year (so his loss are less than most). The fund manager still see a few billion dollars on the side lines from venture capitalist and he himself is sitting on 700 million dollars in cash for his fund and has more coming in. The manager see lots of selling, but little on the buy side so stock keep falling.
Amazing fact, the news said 3.6 trillion dollar has been lost in valuation since the market high last year.
>>Havent seen the p/c ratios or looked at vix readings, but
>>in terms of optimists offering resignation, I haven't
>>seen this for many years.
EPC is 0.76, so we are oversold, but the the TIC on the COMPX has not been that negative. We only briefly touch -1000 yesterday.
What type of time frame are you looking for these trades to unfold under? The perception of leading edge technology in sectors with great potential is a different thing from companies that have long term staying power. Both a group of stocks are worth trading, but only the second are worth investing in. Though I am not up to date on the sector, I put the storage sector in the first category (BRCD, MCDT ...).
For example, AVNX will been introducing its power mux product in the next 2 Q's. It is technology necessary for OC768, but this company is still not profitable. I am not sure how much respect that type of company gets in this environment. I think companies with potential with acutal earnings ,no matter how small might have a better chance of gains if the rally is only a brief counter rally as opposed to a market bottom.
ADCT, AFCI and ADTN are worth a look if the emphasis shifts to the last mile as carrier concentrate on connecting business customers to their exchanges. It is hard to determine when the perception changes. There is less a clear technolgy advantage as opposed to a larger opportunity if that part of the market picks up. The problem with these 3 companies is unlike TLAB, TXCC and AMCC they has still not stated their revised estimates for the Q.
I will look at other ones later if I have time , I am stuck at work this weekend. It is fiscal year end so projects need to be closed on time. |
