Various Ramblings To No One in Paricular
It must be my optimistic personality but I am "betting" we have seen the worst of what we have seen. I will be surprised in light of the liquidfication of the money supply being engineered by the Federal Reserve at this moment, there will be a 1/2 basis point decrease on March 20th, in view of the fact that there will be no recession, if the financial markets do not react explosively going forward. The best and most liquid companies will move first, name them, Microsoft, Sun, Cisco, Intel and so on will be much, much higher in the months ahead. A minority view I know but when everyone least expects it a move is made. I have been a buyer since October, bought in November, December, January, February, and March and will continue to buy because when the turn finally comes, it will come in my lifetime won't it?, I will make out like a bandit.
It seems to me when there is blood in the streets the people on these boards and in the media, bad news sells, come out and try to make it seem like circumstances are worse than they are. Listen to Bloomberg radio they take a most obscure company tell listeners this company will miss expectations and read it with such drama you would think that company was a blue chip company...I think they think they can make investors shake. Very often these commentators have, I suspect, little in the way of assets in the financial markets but have to express their opinions as if they were expert. They are the ones who were bearish as the markets went up for many years but they won't remind you they were wrong and are having their moments in the sun now. They are also the ones who will be miss out on any moves upward but I get the feeling they think stocks have to be close to zero to make a buy recommendation or don't they ever.
Take the case of Intel.
I believe Intel margins fell to 51%(?) I say Intel has 90% of the market and a 51% margin is nothing to be upset about. Anyone want to guess what a company like Intel will go for one or two years from now? I think much higher and if you are a seller you can sell to me at current prices.
Take the case of a forecasted economy wide recession.
Bunk. Just analysts missing the mark, except in manufacturing, as usual. It is the fashion of the day to call a recession but in the face of rapidly decreasing interest rates it is not going to happen. Where did you get your MBA from? Do yourself a favor and ask for a tuition refund.
Take the case of the unemployment report on Friday.
Just analysts telling everyone there will be no rate cut on March 20th. Bunk. The Federal Reserve is cutting rates another 1/2 point.
Take the case of a handful of commentators quoted in the WSJ on a daily basis
They are trend followers who mark their opinion to the market on a daily basis always at the end of the day. They can tell you why the markets went up or down that day after the fact but can tell you squat before the market opens. How about some anticipatory timing guys or have your b*lls been shot off? Or are you afraid your employer may find out you are just a shill?
Let everyone buy the cyclicals and the old economy stocks but I am stocking up on technology big time especially at these prices.
Keep it real. |
