Whether or not one believes Dent's arguments isn't of primary importance. What is important is that secular bears have always followed secular bulls. Unless you believe a profound, fundamental economic metamorphosis has occurred, the current (long in the tooth) secular bull will also be followed by a secular bear. All I'm saying - is shouldn't we prepare? And if so how does a ltb&h type best do that?
You know, I like your posts, and I hope you continue to contribute, but I have to say, I just don't understand this. I mean, of course Bull markets are followed by non-Bull markets. What else could they be followed by? Things that are neither Bulls nor non-Bulls? A bit too Zen for me.
That tautology held true in 2000, and 1999, and 1998, and 1997, and 1996, and 1995, and 1994, etc. It wasn't all that useful then, and I don't think it is now.
What do we do if there's a Bear market? I say hold. As I recall, stocks make for the best investment in almost every twenty-year period in history.
I bet the people who sold in 1930 after the crash wish they hadn't, twenty years later. Likewise, I think that selling after the nasdaq plunges 60% isn't very shrewd. |
