As long as you're receiving sage advice...
Michael - those of us who have been associated with the equipment sector for any length of time have learned, by brutal experience, that trusting any sentence which begins, 'The sector will do XYZ only when the following events occur' (as in, 'The bottom will be reached when....'), is absolutely fraught with peril.
Whether attempting to define the market elements requisite for a top or a bottom, predictions for such events are notorious and, virtually without fail, wrong.
The current market is an opportunity to invest in the equipment sector, whether it be AMAT, or KLIC, or whatever other company you feel will gain market share during this slowdown. A little patience at this stage, without the faintest consideration of timing the exact bottom, will reap substantial benefits in the not-so-distant future.
The SEMs may be in for further contraction. However, in light of the ~60-70% retracement over the last 12 months, the proposition that the majority of pain is behind us is, I believe, well founded. |
