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Gold/Mining/Energy : Nuvo Research Inc

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To: Tom Johnson who wrote (6918)3/11/2001 12:23:27 PM
From: Montana Wildhack  Read Replies (1) of 14101
 
Tom,

It's nice to see some facts surrounding the FDA.

Aside from the reality of actually now starting to
sell Pennsaid, there's one other story I'm finding very
interesting and that's following the cash.

Whatever rumours people may be hearing, there are real
events surrounding the cash that I feel sure are clues to
what happens next.

We've discussed this but briefly:

Dimethaid apparently got Acqua to agree to buy $50 million
worth of stock equivelant to about 13% of the company, with
no real hope of selling them into an average 129,000 volume
daily over the last 3 months.

They got this based on UK, the european reciprical agreement
and not having any cash left.

Securing this slightly astonishing deal, they go ahead
immediately and take less than 3 months cash needs.

......

There can be no doubt a european or US distribution deal
must be signed within 90 days from March 31. Funds of
this size are required to move ahead on more than 1 front.

The math:

Nov 00 burned 2.5 million and had 2.2 million left but with
expenses increasing. So I will use 1 million a month average.

Cash Nov 30 - 2.2 million
UK upfront Cdn - 2.0 million
Acqua financing - 2.5 million

All cash 6.7 million
Dec 1.0
Jan 1.0
Feb 1.0
Mar 1.0
Apr 1.0
May 1.0
Jun 1.0

Out of cash mid June. All cash used just to fund operations.

Why not just go back to Acqua when you need more cash?

That's playing russian roullette needlessly, and does not
provide the funds to move on anything else.

.....

Final conclusion:

Rebecca knows she is very close to at least one of them to
a confidence level that she doesn't want insurance. She
wants to send the message.

My prediction is a larger European deal by end April latest.

The Acqua placement was a stake for Acqua who will play a
larger role later in the year.

Wolf

PS - deal estimates

Provalis paid less right up front but owes some milestones
and DMX gets top premium 'royalty' (say 22%). Cash was
1 million sterling to get in and something further down
the road.

The European deal will be at a smaller premium (say 20%)
but will see some 10 million euros up front (15 mill Cdn).

We'll see.
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