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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates
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To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (40238)3/11/2001 12:57:51 PM
From: lurqer  Read Replies (3) of 54805
 
This is an important topic, and strikes at the heart of LTB&H.

Agree. That's why I thought it worthy of discussion on a ltb&h thread.

you won't be able to know ahead of time. There is no way to time it. The only way I can think of, to prepare, is to assume any cyclical bear could turn into a secular bear, and invest accordingly

Unfortunately, that IMO says you abandon ltb&h while in a secular bull market. Historically ltb&h is about the best strategy within a secular bull market (my earlier definition of secular bull - not MB's definition). So rather than "eliminate the disease by killing the patient", I've sought alternatives. So far, Dent is the best I have. If anyone else has even a proposal of a way to distinguish between the types of bear markets before they begin, I'd be more than a little interested. If one holds a position as a bear begins - isn't that the same as "betting" the bear will not be secular? To me it makes no sense to put one's capital in a position that is most likely to depreciate for decades. So it would seem you either abandon ltb&h, incur a ridiculous amount of risk (i.e. "I just hope this bear isn't secular".), or you attempt to determine, ahead of time, the probability that a secular bear may be in the offing. If the the current bear is secular (as some like Larry Summers believe) and not a bear correction (cyclical bear in your terminology), then I've "blown It". Before the end of this year we should know.

lurqer
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