Shporting the dollar against what? The Euro, the Yen? Maybe the Yuan. I think that the Euro is a flawed currency and will eventually disintegrate, or be reduced to a minimal fictional currency. The yen, well, I have it above $140 yen to the dollar within a tear (maybe just getting up there to within one or two yen below 150 yen/dollar). I think it will take longer than a year to get the dollar back down. Gold, sure, after a retrenchment here we may challenge $275, but even if we succeed (and I have grave doubts) there is so much of it above $300, that I do not see it winning.
The real question is how does one reflect a "required weakness" in the dollar (in face of ever growing balance of payment deficits, reaching soon 4% of GDP), when other leading currencies have all problems of their own? I think that for some time, the dollar will stay as an "international reserve" currency, and eventually, we may have three blocks as reserves the European block (mostly a combo of the Deutchmark and few other stronger currencies there, but not really the euro), a yet to be developed hybrid SE Asian currency (combined of independent currencies there) and the dollar. Gold will not enter the monetary equation, IMHO, unless we are going to face extremely serious calamities, and I don't see that, at least not right now.
Zeev |
