Lurqer,
Several points.
1) We are focused on finding Gorillas and strong Kings. If we are correct in our selections, we will do very well regardless of the overall economy. Had the economy in the 80's & 90's been less stellar, MSFT, INTC & CSCO wouldn't have appreciated quite as much, but they still would have done extremely well. It's sort of a macroeconomic margin of safety.
2) I'm not familiar with GM or RCA, but I imagine the bad one had lots of unprofitable growth. Gorillas tend to have high ROIC, due to their competive advantage. Unprofitable growth does not appear to be an issue with Gorillas before the end of the TALC. But at any rate, we do have people on the thread who monitor for deteriorating ROIC.
3) I have no idea whether we'll see a bear market or a bull market in the next X years. This doesn't bother me, for two reasons. a) I think the answer is unknowable (you appear to disagree, and I respect that). b) I believe that the wisest strategy is the same regardless of the overall market conditions--find great companies, and hold them long term.
4) You seem concerned that your portfolio may outlive your body. I'm not going to pretend that I know what that feels like--like all twenty-somethings, I know that I'll live forever. But obviously, depending on your dependence on your porfolio for income, and on your desire to bequeath an estate, your focus may be less long-term than mine. If so, please bear in mind that while I feel that Gorilla Gaming is a relatively low-risk long-term strategy, it is a long-term strategy nonetheless. We may hope for long-term appreciation rates of 20%+, but we cannot expect those in the short-term. You might want to allocate your resources accordingly.
best,
Ethan |
