Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: lurqer who wrote (40258)	3/11/2001 8:46:10 PM
From: EnricoPalazzo	Read Replies (2) of 54805

No matter what is one's age, the prospect of one's capital depreciating for decades should be cause for concern. It may well be that you will have to live through a secular bear to appreciate the problem. They are very different from bear corrections. It's a human frailty to preoccupy oneself with that which one cannot control. I hold bear markets to be one such happening. If I recall correctly, bondholders or cash-holders don't fare better than stockholders in most secular bear markets anyway. At any rate, I'm certainly comforted by the fact that Buffett ignores macroeconomic trends, and has done OK long-term (in fact, he did quite well through the 70's as well). One drawback with Gorilla theory is that it can't be backtested to any secular bear market. The tech sector is so much more well-developed now than in the 70's or 30's that I imagine there weren't really any Gorillas back then. So it really remains to be seen how the GAPs & CAPs will hold up during a secular bear market, whenever one comes. I'm pretty hopeful, though. best, Ethan

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