Don't forget Naz already down 60% and many top techs down more. Internets down 95%-99%. What you're predicting is a total write-off of tech stocks and the world-wide internet revolution. Seems the flipside equivalent to buying at the top last spring. Unless we have a world-wide depression. Not recession (already there) but DE-pression.
There is no reason we have to re-visit 1998's low regardless of whatever charts you're looking at. True some last lingering high PE stocks may another drop coming but so many are selling below book value, less than cash on hand with no debt and lower burn rates, at very low PE's (Like VZ, WCOM at 11) and every single one I think has dropped more than 50% from its high. The average more like 70%.
You would be more credible if you had called this at the top nine months ago. You sound like the analysts waiting to downgrade AFTER the 95% fall. Down at the bottom it's fashionable to be negative (and human nature) the truth MAY be that this is the best time in your lives to BUY techs on the dips. Tricky to catch bottoms and maybe you have to be patient (or not because next week's rate cut alone could send them back up 20% for a nice trade from here) but right now the upside would seem to swamp the downside risk. When I see SUNW and YHOO at 17 and hear about them dropping more all I can say is "maybe but only if there's more and increased irrational exhuberance to the downside or a world depression". If you want to bet on that go for it.
Just remember, the world has changed a lot since 1998. I don't even think YHOO existed then. Or if it did it was just a tiny company not a household name. Give the internet some value here. It's still growing by leaps and bounds all ove the world, as is wireless. But you're talking about a 99% write-off on it going forward from the high. Not going to happen. LU, EMC, NT, YHOO, SUNW, VZ, ERICY, MOT, INTC etc. etc. are all going to be there and be HUGE in the future. And so are many of the small net companies like SCNT and CMGI which have years of cash in the bank. There will also be lots of takeovers this year. At least there should be. WCOM is practically screaming to be taken over, as is LOR, FON and probably YHOO and ELNK.
If you catch a further dip shorting from here you're just lucky IMHo and better cover fast. I would have covered fast back on Friday. Instead I bought. Because if not the short-term bottom it's at least a short-term oevrsold condition right before a certain large rate cut and a whole new spin. |
