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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA
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To: J.T. who wrote (7148)3/12/2001 2:25:17 AM
From: J.T.  Read Replies (6) of 19219
 
Rydex Total Assets Update for Friday, March 9th 2001 

Regular Series:

SPX Long - NOVA     362.4  Million
SPX Short- URSA     264.5  Million

NDX Long - OTC      1,340  BILLION**new 52 week low
NDX Short- Arktos   82.4   Million         

XAU Precious Metals 47.6   Million 
Banking             38.2   Million**4 1/2 month low 
Biotechnology       377.2  Million**10 month low
Money Market        1,442  BILLION**oversold

*******************************************

Dynamic Series (200% correlation)

SPX Long - TITAN    77.0  Million
SPX Short- TEMPEST  33.9  Million 

NDX Long - VELOCITY 114.2 Million
NDX Short- VENTURE  49.1  Million**new 4 1/2 month high

*********************************************

Capitulation is building. New periodic TA lows on the NDX OTC Long Fund. New periodic highs creeping up in the NDX Short VENTURE Fund. Money Market levels consistently above oversold 1.4 Billion TA levels more often than not permeates fear in market.

SPX 1,230 area is on the brink of a knock-out. We closed at SPX 1,233.42 and this is right on the October 16 1999 intraday low. SPX 1,160 intraday test is on deck unless the Bulls can stop this impending train wreak tomorrow dead in its tracks.

I have mentioned in MITA archives it would take an SPX level below SPX 1,150 to get an inversion in the Rydex SPX Short over Long TA... Inversion sentiment measures not seen since October 1998 lows when SPX was trading below SPX 1,000.

XAU TA pulled back below 50 million as XAU sold off in the afternoon on profit taking from double overbought levels and this is extremely BULLISH.

Why?

It relieved double overbought levels in about 15 minutes on rsi index to below overbought to close at 62.34 on a 5 day rsi. This all happened in the last ten minutes of trading as they jammed the tapewith sell orders into the bell. XAU was trading at 56.50 at 3.30 est 1/2 before the close and right at the time the deadline for the XAU switch has to be made on rydex. I see almost 8 million tried to lock in gains at these levels only to their demise as XAU fell like a stone to close at XAU 55.01 at session lows to close down $1.78 down 3.1%. It fell about $1.50 in 15 minutes as the 1 minute chart clearly shows:
charts-d.quote.com:443/984381611850?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=INDEX:XAU.X&Interval=1&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=0&Study=RSI&Param1=5&Param2=&Param3=&FontSize=10&BgColor=0.255.0&TBgColor=0.255.0

Spot gold is up another $1.10 overnight at $272.70 and above 272 resistance level.

Also, notice the lead sled dog the all gold JSE Index closed at JSE 1,082.10 up almost 50 points and less than 13 points off the Feb 27 high close of 1,094.80. We have now had 5 consecutive closes above 1,000 - a first since last late June early July period.

If this is the typical "low" that XAU registers around a full moon (XAU 55.01) I can't wait for the next "high" the XAU will register on/near the new moon on March 25th. My coveted XAU 68.01???

BKX must hold BKX 860 tomorrow. A failure to hold this level could commence a nasty collapse in the broad market everywhere to get the final wash-out play before the rebuilding starts back up off the capitulation V-bottom and eventual retest of that low.. Only if BKX 860 fails and it is apparent ist will be a falure to close above BKX 860. This would correspond to DOW assaulting DOW critical support DOW 10,320 in a hurry.

Overnight futures look grim to scare em outta da blocks open gapside down.


S&P 500   JUN01  1236.10     -800       EURO $    MAR01    94.965    -.25
E-MINI    MAR01  1222.00     -900                 JUN01    95.27      +.5
          JUN01  1236.25     -775                 SEP01    95.34A    UNCH
NSDQ100   JUN01  1807.00     -3050                DEC01    95.17B    UNCH
E-NASDAQ  JUN01  1807.50B    -3000                MAR02    95.11P    ----



I remain:

Regular Series: 100% XAU Precious Metals
Dynamic Series: 100% Short SPX TEMPEST

Best Regards J.T.
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