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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity
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To: kodiak_bull who wrote (1395)3/12/2001 11:24:50 AM
From: excardog  Read Replies (1) of 23153
 
Lehman on E&P sector:

Oil & Gas
Exploration & Production: E&P Shares Up-Downgrading NBL/PXD

The average E&P stock has doubled over the last year and we now believe that the shares are approaching fair value. Downside risks to our commodity price forecast have increased as a result of growing concerns about natural gas demand. Demand losses - for purposes other than space heating - have been as high as 10 bcfpd. Slower economic growth this year could lead to slower than expected electric power and natural gas growth this summer. We are lowering our investment opinion on the shares of Noble Affiliates (NBL) and Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) from 1-Strong Buy to 3-Market Perform.

Oil & Gas
Exploration & Production: Lowering ’01 Gas Price to $5.75/MMBtu

Q1 nat. gas prices have been weaker than we had previously forecast. As a result we are lowering ’01E natural gas prices from $6.25 to $5.75/MMBtu. Our rest-of-year estimate remains at $5.25-$5.30/MMBtu. We are trimming ’02E from $4.50 to $4.25/MMBtu but maintaining ’03E of $3.50/MMBtu. We are raising ’01E WTI oil-price from $25.00 to $26.50/bbl largely to reflect the oil-price strength thus far this year. We are increasing ’02E from $21.00 to $22.50/bbl but maintaining our ’03E oil-price of $21.00/bbl. The oil-price estimate increases offset roughly half the negative impact of the natural gas price reductions for the typical stock we cover.
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