doug, on an elliot wave basis, it's possible that we have finished up the rally from the 1974 or 1982 lows.
Zeev somewhat agrees with this, if this is the case we should be in an across the board bear market, which
a lot of old eco stocks that i've looked at seem to have finished up five wave counts from the march lows.
if you look at the nyse a/d line, we had one drive into the 98 lows, the 2nd drive into the march 2000 lows and have now may have finished up a countertrend rally in the a/d line and now are going into the 3rd drive down in the bear market in nyse.
I think people are making a mistake by claiming that the II survey is no longer valid or the fact that during this whole consolidation phase in the dow over the last year there have been consistently 8-9 bulls on the WSW elves stand, or poo pooing the fact that Rydex Ursa had more assets than Nova at the October 99 bottom after a 10% drop, but at the same level or lower than that after a 20% drop, thats not the case, or the fact that they've been loading up on long leveraged funds all the way down, or the fact that while the rydex otc fund has gone 1/3rd of itself from the top, the otc bear fund (arktos) has bearily budged from the levels it was at the top.
there is still a lot of non-recognition out there about the state of the trend, thats why we need a capitulation to get everyone in on the bear party. |
