Hi Zeev,
after such a long time of abstention from posting on SI, I came back some days ago only to find out that the site became usable again <g> (after becoming an annoyance in late 1999 due to lack of speed at GNET back then)
Anyway, Bosco told me that you are found mostly here around and I hope you and all others won't bother me staying around here and participating from time to time in your excellent thread. While shortterm trading is not my style, I am always trying to find clues as to good entry (and even more exit points) with regard to my investments.
Now I would like to share an observation. ^IXIC (Naz comp.) seems to be bottoming out in your scenario. My candlestick indicators tell me some things which would fit into this picture: first of all volume is FINALLY receding. When I look to the volume of the last month, this was not the case: the decline was accompanied by increasing volume. That's gone now. Some indicators like the Tom de Mark Buy 13 rule, are triggered which might indicate (we will know within the next 10-14 days) a market bottoming out in its final stage.
Then we had 2 gap downs in the last 2 days plus trading action that are called DOJI in candlestick charting (so it's 2 gapping down doji's). Now the Doji is a major candle indicator in this japanese trading system, it is normally used to predict tops or bottoms. A DOJI is like a "BAR" in western style where you have open and close at nearly (or exactly) the same price.
If just one doji is gapping away from the preceding and the following trading bar then it's a major reversal signal called DOJI STAR. Now if you got 2 DOJI's with gaps in between it becomes even more significant.
Now what pattern might evolve TOMORROW ? If we gap up and the market (IXIC) swings wildly but always stays above today's close/open then we will either have finished a TRI STAR bottom (ultra bullish and additionally confirmed by RSI) if we get another DOJI but this time to the upside (W/ or w/or gap) or it becomes a double doji star (very bullish) if we get an extraordinary strong uptick in a "white line". If we get a sideways range, a bullish "harami cross" will have formed.
If we however open tomorrow lower then there are 2 possibilities with candlesticks: either we open gap down. Then the "3 gap rule" would set in: after 3 gaps a trend is said to have finally exhausted. Any bullish signal then should be acted on. If we just trickle lower then the downtrend should continue.
Zeev, would this short synopsis of my candlestick charts fit into your picture or are there significant differences to your view of the status quo.
Finally, I have been watching a stock that I've been eyeing for entry some days now. I like the underlying technology and might feel tempted to enter: SCMR. Book value (no goodwill) is >$1.6bn (around $5 per share), cash on hand around $3 per share. Today had sort of a "counterattack" line which could pass as a reversal pattern but I'm unsure. Volume is getting lower finally which would be a good sign. Pls., could your turnips enlighten me on SCMR ??
Finally, congrats on NEWP. Might be getting into this one, soon. Today had a major possible reversal pattern (unconfirmed doji star). One of the best F/O players but also strong in semi & thinfilm (HDD & storage) capital equipment.
All the best after a long time
CROSSY |
