Mike,
I didn't play the LA Derby, but if I did, I wouldn't have had the winner. The odds on the main contenders didn't seem high enough for me to participate and I didn't like the winner much.
I got shut out of the Florida Derby because I was doing my laundry. Sad but true. Anyway, I would have lost. I would have played the 2nd place finisher at those odds.
The killer was the Santa Margarita on Saturday at SA. I made the race very close between several contenders (pretty much the whole field). One of the horses I thought had a shot was Lazy Sluzan who had a few back wins over the more highly regarded horses in the field.
If you threw out the 2 recent turf races, it was pretty clear she belonged in the race, but was sent off at 12-1.
Spain on the other hand, who was bet heavily, hadn't really impressed me too much so far this year.
Mathematically, I should have played Lazy Sluzan. I thought she was a overlay, but I tend to hold back on occasion when the race it very wide open and the probability of winning is on the low side.
Basically, by avoiding these lower probability bets, I'm trying to avoid long losing streaks (even if there is long term profit in it). Big Mistake this time! :-)
Wayne |
