Philip Morris - A Stock For Wealth Or Poverty (MO) Message Board

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Non-Tech : Philip Morris - A Stock For Wealth Or Poverty (MO)

MO 58.60

+0.9%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Theo Karantsalis who wrote (6143)	3/13/2001 1:04:23 PM
From: Xianming Liu	Read Replies (3) of 6439

Theo: I would really love it if MO reaches $75 by summer. But I think your target price is perhaps too high for this year. I will be very happy if it reaches $65 by summer. MO will make $4.09 per share this year (the cash earning, however, will be something like $4.30). In the past 10 years, MO's 12 month trailing PE was between 6.2 (Feb. 2000) and 18.4 (Dec. 1991). A price of $75 by summer would require a 6 month forward P/E of about 18.4. While reaching $75 by summer is possible, it is not very likely. MO will certainly benefit from orderly sell-off of tech, which used to be darling of the growth funds. If the news on litigation front is good, MO could once again become one of the darlings of growth funds. After all, MO was the most beloved stock by institutions exactly 10 years ago (after IBM stumbled). However, if the sell-off becomes too aggressive, every liquid stock will be down significantly as fund managers are forced to raise cash to meet redeemptions.

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