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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity

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To: jim_p who wrote (1473)	3/13/2001 2:05:12 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Read Replies (2) of 23153

Cramer - Semi's still not cheap thestreet.com Regardless of what you think about him I think he's dead right on this issue and until the semi's find a bottom there's NO hope imho for techs as a whole. Future earnings still in question, not cheap historically, and the cycle (economic) can feed on itself in both directions. When companies started warning in sept that was just from the excess capacity/debt bought by all the telecoms. We still have yet to see the effects that the Nasdaq falling 62% in one year will bring nor the effect of both the world's #1 and #2 economies cooling at the same time. AMAT's bottom should be found in the $25-30 range given past cycles and their earnings outlook for this year. Given the excess inventory in Asia and the fact the Intel has yet to guide down their Cap ex budget (don't worry it'll happen), earnings of $1.56 for 2001 and $1.89 for 2002 seem too optimitic. Then apply a PE of 15-20 for past bottoms and you get $25-30 imho. Even $20 would not surprise me in the least given how much earnings have been guided down recently. Look at the trend in earning's revisions the last 90 days and ask yourself if things are really going to bounce back that fast in 2002. biz.yahoo.com

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