I think JDSU will participate in this rally, the reason I did not get in this time is because I reanalyzed their finances, and discovered to my horror that you should not rely on Yahoo's profile for book value, they have close to 20 B in goodwill on the book which if memory serves is 80% of the book, on the next decline, I think that one of the mottos will be "quality" of the book and cash on hand to stay afloat during hard times, that is why i concentrate this time on companies with a better looking "book".
As for the turnips, the next few calls will have to be off the mark, just because of statistical considerations, luckily, I think that the general scenario to April 18th will hold, so, even if they err in some of the details, we should be OK. The last string of five calls, was simply too phenomenal with two of them exactly on the nose (the Jan 31st 2:15 PM, how much more on the nose one can be? and the bounce between the two bottom here stalling at exactly 2250).
Zeev |
