Paul...I agree that the Naz, Dow, and SnP are now back to (more or less) their historical relationship....so, whatever down move left for Naz (if any)...will likely be equalled at some point by the other 2 averages...
And I guess that's what the debate is about...will Dow, SnP also go lower here? If one does not think so, then likely the Naz has also seen most/almost all of its downside, according to argument...
The trannies are obviously not a good sign, as you pointed out...
I still have a hard time believing that the Dow can be walled off from the recession in tech....also, I think when this mess arrives on European shores, it will create problems for many Dow stocks who do a lot of biz there (IBM, 3M, etc.)...also, I think Dow stocks are still benefitting from cash that didn't no where to go most of last year....that will get unwound, as well...
If the dollar weaken, as should, if we keep cutting interest rates, and the Euros don't..then we will see add'l capital flight out of U.S. Japan bears special watching too...banks at critical levels.....and we've still got that crazy English meat thing (which will have not insignificant effect of British economy),and the energy crisis to look forward to...
A clarification: I know Chambers mentioned again the 30-50 target for this year...but for the record....Cisco could report 0 to -5% sales growth (sequential, from last quarter) for the next 3 quarters....and still acheive 35%-30% sales growth for the year....due to the 60% y-o-y last quarter...to claim 30-50% for next few years- well, I see that as pure conjecture.........I see Chambers remarks as being very clever, but not very positive necessary....
But the market is all about psychology in the short-term, and it certainly changed for today....glad I closed all shorts yesterday....Decided where to step into this rally (if at all)...Figure its got some juice left...Congrads on profits you made today... |
