Hello Joel,
I am now fundamentally, technically and intuitively bullish, for the short, intermediate and the long term, for both New and Old Economy shares, and every individual cell in my body is crying out to buy all subsequent dips via the selling of Puts. Here are my reasons:
(a) The world is mostly at peace and at its productive best;
(b) Scientific discoveries and implementations are at their fastest pace, ever;
(c) Governments everywhere are in a proactive interventionist mode, ready to rescue the financial system from any and all danger, quickly, without the slightest hesitation, always;
(d) Governments everywhere, in the aggregate, are at their most responsive than at any other historic period;
(e) The global middle class is at its largest, working, forming families, building for the future;
(f) The comparison to the ancient period 1929, and the comparisons of present day America with 1980s Japan are misleading;
(g) America is in the hands of a solidarity leadership, in both the executive and legislature branches of the government;
(h) Russia is no longer in free fall, slowly reviving after the cataclysmic breakup of the empire;
(i) Japan has bottomed, having given back all that was unearned, readying for another charge upward, fueled by liquidity level rivaling any historic period;
(j) China is undergoing the greatest capitalist revolution, ever;
(k) Europe is on the verge of social, monetary and political unification, gathering momentum for Renaissance II;
(l) Energy costs, adjusted for inflation is just off historic lows, with plenty of supplies about to get on stream;
(m) Information cost, for gathering, transmission, storage and analysis, after the binge of the last 60 months, is dropping toward zero;
(n) Network effect, on a global scale, is transforming planet earth into one intelligent organism, solving difficult problems and finding best solutions at the fastest pace;
(o) Valuation: The downside in the financial system is clearly defined and delineated, unlike the upside, as we cannot go to zero;
(p) The financial system, being a human construct, can be fixed via human political dictation and human legislative fiat – at worst case, we simply start new;
(q) Many of the leading companies pre-crisis will be leading companies post-crisis, simply due to their organization, know-how and know-who, but playing in a much more empty environment; and
(r) By selecting a basket of leading companies shares, buy, lock away, and get back to work, each of us will be able to look back on this period as a blessing of generations.
In summary, the world is connected, at peace, orderly, vibrant, and on the verge of a new age of exploration and exploitation, and this time, gravity will not hold us back, for we are reaching for the stars. Renaissance II. Should we give up on hope, we cease to be responsible to families, friends and ourselves.
Chugs, Jay |
