Gold... A read from Harry Schultz
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The International Harry Schultz Letter
gold-eagle.com
2nd Opportunity of a lifetime?
It happened last time from 1969 to 1979, 10 golden years.
And it "appears" to be happening now, from 2001 to perhaps 2011. Nobody believed it at the beginning then either. I should know. I was writing HSL from 1964. No one can guarantee the future, but here's the evidence, so U can decide for yourself. While no one was looking, a goodly number of gold stocks have rocketed in recent wks, despite no help from the gold price! For reasons, see below. First, here are the facts, ma'am:
Durban Deep (famous SoAfrican high-leverage gold stock) rose 50% in last 2 wks, & 110% since end Nov. I know one of the directors; they're a fine company. Symbol: DROOY.
Meridian Gold (MDG) rose 55% since end Nov. & has large inverse head & shoulders base pattern.
DeBeers (gold/diamonds) (DBRSY) up 50% in recent wks, 90% since Oct. Rose from bullish chart pattern as we slept.
Even stodgy old Noranda (NOR-T), no blue chip, rose 15% recently, & 30% since Nov. Rose from reverse H&S base.
FreeportMcmoranC&G (FCX) rose 40% lately, 105% since Nov.
Anglogold (AU) rose 20% of late & 50% since Nov. Mega-mine.
GoldFields (GOLD) rose 50% in recent wks, 90% since Nov.
ASA Ltd (ASA), a gold fund, rose 15% recently, 40% since Nov.
Homestake (HM) stick-in-mud stk? Rose 60% since Nov & has bullish base chart pattern, as do most of stks listed here.
Barrick: up 33% from Oct, but failed to break out of base like the others, as it's over-hedged, so can't untangle its own feet.
Phil gold/silver index: broke up marginally from bull base chart pattern; can't do much as it's weighted down by hedger Barrick.
AgnicoEagle (AEG) up 43% since Nov. Mega Canadian mine.
This is not a buy list. It's a proof-of-what's-happening list. Most are worth buy consideration, but look at charts first. Most of these stk prices have pulled back from their sharp upturns, some a lot, some hardly at all. Pullbacks from chart breakouts are normal. And especially with no rise in bullion's price. Biggest gains are in SoAfrica, which is the most sophisticated gold stock mkt in the world. SAfr golds pay decent dividends unlike US, Cda & Oz golds. And sell at low p/e ratios. Don't assume from the above that all gold stks are buys. Some show no decent chart support or action. Each gold stk is as different as is every industrial stock. If this is indeed to be a new mega gold bull mkt, HSL will devote space to the best buys as we did in the prior Golden Age.
2nd ace up gold sleeve: the Ides of March were fateful for Julius Caesar & may be for the goldphobes. It's the date of the 1st response to Howe/GATA's suit against the gold price fixers. Will it prove fateful for the price colluders? This is the biggest gold event of the past 2 decades. And perhaps the only time a US govt has been accused of so much wrongdoing. The court case, in Boston, can take many possible turns, most of which favour gold, even if short of total victory. I don't wish to discuss them here, as courtroom strategy is involved. The "enemy" already tracks all goldphiles so we need not furnish them with all we know. USTreasury replies on 3/15. Some defendants will file Mar 30 & McDonough of NY Fed on Apr 10. They'll likely move to dismiss. Reg.Howe will file oppositions to those motions. Then a hearing will be set. This could attract as much court attention as OJ Simpson. The joust is joined. Your financial help is sought by GATA. GATA is recognized by US IRS as a civil rights & educational org, tax deductible contributions. Mail cks to GATA, c/o Chris Powell, 7 Villa Louisa Rd, Manchester, Conn. 06043-7541. Bank wires: GATA, c/o Savings Bank of Manchester, 923 Main St, Manchester, CT 06040, USA. Bank routing #: 211-170-185. For acnt #9500- 574-053. For contact: (www.lemetropolecafe.com) Email cxpowell@aol.com. Or: LePatron@LeMetropoleCafe.com. US fax 214.522.3411. Your financial help is sought by GATA. (www.lemetropolecafe.com) Email cxpowell@aol.com. US fax 860.649.8878. Or 214.522.3411.
All the above leads to some non-obvious points:
Even in a weak gold bullion mkt, & with gold's price capped by the insiders, it's possible to make huge profits by watching the charts.
When gold's price is eventually freed, the power moves above give U a hint of what will happen in a free mkt.
With the GATA court case against the key insiders pending, it may be prudent to buy gold just in case the case is won or even publicized to such a degree that the exposé will wake up the world to the true strength of gold, which has been hidden by the price capping (as was promised by Greenspan himself before Congress about 2yrs ago).
Our in-house 30-yr R&D shows the US$ usually moves contrary to gold, but there have been short periods (up to 9mos) when both moved together. The US$ appears to be topping out, per various measuring sticks we use (one of which will remain in-house only, & shows the US$ due for downturn).
Mkt Vane Bullish Consensus Report shows gold hit a low of non-bullishness of 14% on Feb 20, but shot up to 27% on Feb 27, the biggest jump I can recall. So people are turning positive, irrespective of gold's price or fixers.
Maybe somebody knows something is coming. Insiders always know in advance. I've heard rumours, eg, a new central bank agreement not to lend gold; a change of policy by the new GWB admin not to intervene in this mkt as predecessors did; mutual fund buying quietly, etc.
How can gold shares move up when bullion doesn't? Nothing can stop a force or idea whose time has come. It's "relatively" easy to fix/cap the gold price but impossible to cap every individual gold stock! Especially those in SoAfr.
Some of the gold price fixing crowd must know their time is running out & some may be buying gold stks to get on the train before all do.
The price fixers (bullion bankers, bullion brokers, certain central bankers, certain current or former govt officials) would like to use a strategy of letting the gold price run free for about 14 days, to "prove" that the mkt isn't rigged. The trouble is, they know doing so would endanger or bankrupt many of their fellow colluders. So they're cornered.
There isn't enough gold bullion available (at present prices) to cover all the price fixers' & mine hedgers' short positions. Not even 10% enough. So the monopolists are forced to keep shorting, to buy time. They may do time in jail, if the charges against some of them stick. They've violated the Sherman Anti-Trust Act.
If U want to help the gold price U should buy gold bars/wafers/bullion coins. That takes gold off the mkt. It doesn't help gold if U buy shares, options, futures, rare coins. In practice, U should do both.
Legendary technician Ian Notely says gold is the "most oversold it has been in 59 years." He believes gold is entering a bull mkt.
GATA's team has just returned from a remarkably successful tour in SoAfr, a nation that's been raped by the gold price fixers. Gold is a major factor in SA's economy. Hundreds of thousands of mine workers & their families have been devastated by the gold price fix/fall, jobs lost. Crime fills the gap when jobs go. Money needed for medicine is lacking. SoAfr is very sympathetic to the GATA cause, will bring pressure on the US to stop the criminal price fixing.
GATA plans a summit meeting of mining ministers of all African nations to deal with the fixers.
The game is changing. SoAfr Reserve Bank has increased its gold holdings by 50% vs 1 yr ago. They must smell a change.
To help gold & yourself, US subscribers can put bullion coins/bars in their IRA's & company pensions. This takes gold off the mkt, thus helps gold price. (for free info on how to do it, call 800.835.600. Ed Lee).
Website GOLD-EAGLE.com has just passed its 25 millionth hit, to 159 nations. 1.8mil hits a month. Says I.M. Vronsky: "The legions of global goldbugs are reaching critical mass. We'll eventually overwhelm the gold cabal, forcing them to realize, as Abe Lincoln said: 'U can fool some of the people all the time & all the people some of the time, but not all the people all the time'." The fixers have milked this cow dry. Their day of gold manipulation is coming to an end. It's in the air & in the charts!
Harry Schultz
ihsl.com
hsl.mentor@skynet.be
Tel +32 (for Belgium) 16 533 684 -- Fax +32 16 535 777
Postal address: HSL, PO Box 622, CH-1001 Lausanne, Switzerland
14 March 2001
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Best Regards, J.T. |
