Re: The Pentium 4 is based on the next generation microprocessor architecture and has greater capabilities with Internet applications.
We heard for a year and a half that the P4, designed by the sainted team that designed the PIII core, was coming. And we heard that once the P4 was out, it was over for AMD.
As an AMD stockholder, I was quite worried.
Well, the P4 is finally out. And Intel can't sell them even with big rebates. They don't run X86 software worth a damn. Now we're being threatened with lots more P4's being produced. So what? They can't sell the ones they're making now.
Durons at 900MHZ are already showing up, and AMD expects an ASP on Durons of around $50. Next quarter, Intel PIII core chips with their 866/933 MHZ sweet spot will be very hard pressed to maintain an ASP of $100, - including averaging in Xeons. Tualatin would help bring that up, but Tualatin won't be here in any significant volume until Q3 at the earliest. 1.3GHZ old core DDR Athlons are showing up and they run rings around P4 on virtually all benchmarks - and AMD is ecstatic to be selling them for a little over $200.
By Q3, AMD will be sampling SOI parts. Remember how AMD's early move to copper kneecapped Intel? Get ready for the sequel.
Intel's pathetic refrain of "We're gonna crush AMD, you just wait six months, you'll see" has been going on for two years, now.
In that time, AMD has stopped bleeding, and Intel has started hemorrhaging - and I don't see anything coming that will change that set of circumstances.
Sorry to go off on a rant, but when supposedly professional analysts keep falling for the same, tired, old, "...six months" line, I get really annoyed.
Regards,
Dan |
