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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets

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To: Michael Friesen who wrote (3048)	3/14/2001 4:58:54 PM
From: Paul Berliner	Read Replies (1) of 3536

kitco.com Michael, click on the little 'lease rate chart' text in the middle of the linked page. You will see the correlation. However, it appears that we may have been fooled yet again by our yellow friend, as the BoE auction today was not impressively oversubscribed as mistakenly rumored. ST lease rates fell very sharply today in response, but they are still very high and should be monitored closely. I'm going mad short emerging market telcos and bancos - speculating on fear spreading globally and a 'flight to quality' as witnessed in the fall of 1998. While there is no LTCM out there, the only thing missing from the mkt meltdown is a banking crisis. I am betting that some bad news - not necessarily derivative related - is on the horizon from the likes of JPM or GS. I have seen this situation play out before and its a sentiment thing. Sentiment is now turning neg towards everything - not just tech stocks. Fear breeds more fear and I am banking on that. -Paul

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