IF you are correct, then there is no safe place. Banks, gold and all holdings will be essentially worthless...so that script is going to hurt everyone. I don't buy into that. Not that it can't happen. It just isn't likely.
Secondly, what makes you think the value of a home in SF is an indication of housing prices elsewhere in the US? SF is more expensive than New York right now, and New York benefitted far more than SF from the bubble. My housing, outside of NYC, hasn't risen dramatically since I purchased 6 years ago. In fact, if it has come close to being up 8% a year (which over the last 20 years is a low figure for my area), I would be surprised.
I think that you've got some tidbits of information about what has occurred here over the last 10 years, and some of it looks very bad, indeed. Most, however, is not bad at all.
Should I wind up (in a worse case scenario) being back at my financial position that I was sitting at 3 years ago, I wouldn't feel all that bad off. Worse off than I was a year ago, but not all that bad.
To play the game you play - timing things - is frightening indeed. It works for a very few, and most of them have some kind of inside information to begin with.
As for the places you hope to preserve capital - if your script is true, you're screwed in a far worse way than most of us.
Most of my gains are house money now...my initial capital is somewhere else. I either spent it, paid off mortgages, loans or invested in something else that is less volatile.
I don't mind losing house money. C'est la vie. It will all come back anyway...I'm young and the market always comes back. |
