Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis

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To: JRI who wrote (2944)	3/14/2001 10:47:49 PM
From: StockOperator	Read Replies (3) of 52237

JRI, What a day - no what a week! All this volatility and still no clear sense of direction by WS. I watch a lot CNBC and I am amazed by the complete lack of direction by most of the regulars. One week they say one thing the next something completely different. Even the Bloch's of the world seem to be completely unbalanced. You get the sense that the market is playing off a set of cue cards so unfamiliar to what most of the pros are used to. Which is really a good point. Ask yourself this is it possible the parameters that these pros seem to be stumbling over are ones that worked fine during the 1990-2000 bull phase, but are not effective now because we might be seeing something all together different. Here's one of my posts from the beginning of this month. Read my thoughts on the DOW, GE, KO, MCD... siliconinvestor.com Now check out the charts for the big boys. GE, KO, MCD. The big guys are under pressure. I am early on the automakers but trust me their turn in the sun is coming. I can tell you in all honesty when I look at the charts I am still seeing stocks with very ugly patterns. Signs all over the place that distribution on a wide scale is taking place. Why do you think stocks have been pushed towards their upper limits only to falter at the key resistance. Stocks firm in premarket only to open and go no where. Every day news filtering out that there's noise from traders that "this is the bottom" or "we're seeing buying coming in in the last hour." I tell you it's a joke. Throughout this entire phase my stance has been firm. My response to every rally has been unwaivering - "No rally for techs prior to April" - "the challenge for stocks will be to maintain their lows." And everyday we are seeing more stocks unable to meet that challenge. Now I know the VIX is at a high level and I'm sure some sort of rally is close at hand. It makes me feel very uneasy knowing the PC ratio is at the level that it is. But yet I see certain stocks ready to take a tumble. All the more reason we shouldn't short anything tech. Like always you have to pick the battles that are winable. Let me finish by saying that the next four to six weeks may be the most critical weeks of the next six months. Pretty bold statement I know but here's my thinking. This timeframe takes us out of my first quarter scenario. Stocks like AMAT, KLAC, ALTR, AMD have been holding up pretty well. Their short term charts (3 months) look bullish with prices pointed upwards. My problem is their longer term patterns over the past year. Prices are going to be under significant pressure to break up or down. It will also put to rest all the hype we've been hearing that "this group will lead us out" or "hey look the semis are holding up well." Hype that has been spoon fed to us for the past two months. GM and F will also be tested. A breakdown of any one of these stocks or groups will do more to confirm that this economic period is unlike anything faced in the last ten years. Time will tell.

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