Semi Equipment Analysis Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 303.84

+1.3%

Dec 22 4:00 PM EST

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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (384)	3/15/2001 12:02:45 AM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) of 95622

Don, we all have been trying to figure out why the equips are so strong compared to NAZ. Here's a possible explanation: the semi equip cycle has for many years been reliable in that it was a series of V's [VVV except each V higher than the previous one]. Amplitude and timing has varied some, but you could always depend on the V to happen. Contrast that with trying to predict CSCO. It went up, up, up for years - then suddenly plunged. Where is it going now and how far how soon? Impossible to answer, because it never has happened before. The semi equip cycles are more reliable. Maybe that's why they are favored by the big money now. Gottfried

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