World Cellphone Growth - If you believe the article below, by 2006 1.7 Billion moblie phone users, 1230 GSM/based and 470M CDMA based. Today there are about 490M GSM and 90M CDMA. So Growth rate for GSM is 251% or 20% for 5 years. CDMA is 522% or 39% a year, nearly twice the growth rate of GSM.
Caxton
Market studies paint positive picture for mobile market
By Total Telecom staff
14 March 2001
One in four of the global population will own a mobile phone by 2006, according to one of several new studies on the mobile sector published this week.
According to Worldwide Cellular User Forecasts (2001-2006), a report from U.S.-based Strategy Analytics Inc., the global cellular market will double in size to 1.7 billion subscribers by 2006, although the main areas of growth will not be in the traditionally strong markets of North American and western Europe.
The report claims that only 20% of growth in the next five years will be generated by these two regions, which currently account for more than half of the world's mobile phone users.
"The western European cellular market has grown at a phenomenal rate over the last two years, but this growth will slow dramatically over the next two," said Phil Kendall, director, Global Wireless Practice, at Strategy Analytics.
The report added that the rest of the world - driven by strong growth in Latin America and Central Europe - will double its share of the global market from 16% today to 33% in 2006.
GSM-based systems are expected to continue to dominate the worldwide cellular landscape over the next five years, accounting for 55% of the market in 2006, said the report. CDMA systems will support 470 million users by 2006, accounting for 28% of worldwide users.
According to the report U.S. Cellular Market Forecast Update, also by Strategy Analytics, the U.S. cellular market is set to reach virtual saturation point by 2006, with a penetration level of around 84% and revenue from voice services reaching around US$86 billion. The report says that subscriber growth in the U.S. market will reach 24% in 2001, leading to a penetration level of more than 48%.
Strategy Analytics was also optimistic about the prospects for mobile handset growth in the next five years, with global shipments set to grow by 17% annually by 2006. In the report Worldwide Cellular Shipment Forecasts (2001-2006), the market research firm predicts that handset shipments will reach 500 million in 2001 and more than 1 billion in 2006, with replacement rather than new handsets accounting for the majority of the growth. The report added that global penetration currently lies at just 11%.
According to David Kerr, vice president, Global Wireless Practice, of Strategy Analytics, Finnish vendor Nokia extended its market leadership last year. "With Ericsson and Motorola both abdicating their titles at least in terms of contenders for the mass market, the door has been flung open for a new battle between Siemens, Samsung, Mitsubishi and possibly Alcatel to compete for volume," Kerr added.
The report also said that the handset market was adversely affected by three key factors in 2002: Severe component shortages that impacted the performance of several vendors; continued slippage in time to market with new 2.5G devices; and over-stated assumptions on the handset replacement cycle to support the bullish 450 million total shipment target. |
