Rydex Total Assets Update for Wednesday, March 14th
Regular Series:
SPX Long - NOVA 286.2 Million**new 52 week low
SPX Short- URSA 242.1 Million
NDX Long - OTC 1,256 BILLION**near new 52 week low
NDX Short- Arktos 81.1 Million
XAU Precious Metals 39.1 Million**new 2 week low
Banking 36.0 Million**5 month low
Biotechnology 331.1 Million**new 52 week low
Money Market 1,609 BILLION**double oversold
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Dynamic Series (200% correlation)
SPX Long - TITAN 64.4 Million
SPX Short- TEMPEST 30.9 Million
NDX Long - VELOCITY 108.3 Million
NDX Short- VENTURE 49.9 Million
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Tonight's Rydex numbers permeate capitulation. Money Market levels rarely get above double oversold levels it is the first time in 2,001 this has happened. It happened twice in May 2,000 and has gotten as high as 1,767 BILLION on September 25th.
But double oversold levels in Money market have never been accompanied by new 52 week lows in SPX Long NOVA and near 52 week lows in NDX Long OTC. You sprinkle in Biotech 52 week lows and Banking 5 month lows and you have the ingredience for a powerful counter-trend bounce tomorrow. A potential melt-up just the opposite of today's meltdown.
SPX 1,160 death support held firm today. I first identifed this level after the close on February 28th when SPX 1,233 level was getting assaulted MITA 6923:
...<Right now with today's closing prices in the broad market - WE ARE IN THE DEATH ZONE. It is that point where Bears have the opportunity to take out significant supports in the last 3 significant lead sled dogs: DOW, SPX and BKX. It has obviously already happened in tech ala COMP, NDX, SOX, IIX NWX et al... The Bulls need to draw the line of support right here and now and mount the counter-tet offensive>...
Cycle lows are between now and friday and this is fodder for Bears.
...<The Bulls cling to SPX holding above that SPX 1,233.70 the October 18, 1999 intraday lows. So for me critical support is SPX 1,230. That sucker breaks on the close then SPX 1,160 test (December 15, 16 1999 close) is potentially on deck.
DOW 10,320 close must hold. So must BKX 860. If all 3 blow thru supports and more importantly book closes below these levels then the final wash-out is on deck and it will be nasty>...
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SPX 1,230 held this test and ran up to SPX 1,267 before turning back down...
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In MITA 7,190 it was apparent to me from Friday's action that SPX 1,230 was all but about to get taken out in the late sunday night monday morning update as I turned short:
...<Capitulation is building. New periodic TA lows on the NDX OTC Long Fund. New periodic highs creeping up in the NDX Short VENTURE Fund. Money Market levels consistently above oversold 1.4 Billion TA levels more often than not permeates fear in market.
SPX 1,230 area is on the brink of a knock-out. We closed at SPX 1,233.42 and this is right on the October 16 1999 intraday low. SPX 1,160 intraday test is on deck unless the Bulls can stop this impending train wreak tomorrow dead in its tracks.
I have mentioned in MITA archives it would take an SPX level below SPX 1,150 to get an inversion in the Rydex SPX Short over Long TA... Inversion sentiment measures not seen since October 1998 lows when SPX was trading below SPX 1,000>....
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Today we tested the SPX 1,160 hard all day and managed to close above this level at SPX 1,166.71 after an intraday low of SPX 1,155.35.
charts-d.quote.com:443/984639748500?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=INDEX:SPX.X&Interval=5&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=0&Study=&Param1=&Param2=&Param3=&FontSize=10&BgColor=0.255.0&TBgColor=0.255.0
I am looking for a solid countertrend bounce to SPX 1,208 and we need confirmation with BKX above BKX 850 (not 860 as this is resistance). Once we get to this level lets see how the internals look.
Overnight futures melt up as NIKKEI overnight up big after gapside down open.
S&P 500 JUN01 1191.10 +1030 EURO $ MAR01 95.065 -.25
E-MINI MAR01 1178.75 +950 JUN01 95.44 -.5
JUN01 1191.80 +1100 SEP01 95.515 -1
NSDQ100 JUN01 1820.00 +4400 DEC01 95.34B -1
E-NASDAQ JUN01 1823.00B +4700 MAR02 95.265 -1
I Remain:
Regular Series: 100% Long XAU Precious Metals
Dynamic Series: 100% Long SPX TITAN
Best Regards, J.T. |
