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Strategies & Market Trends : Sharck Soup
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To: velociraptor_ who wrote (11833)3/15/2001 7:16:06 AM
From: DlphcOracl  Read Replies (1) of 37746
 
Velociraptor: What is your best take on where the NASDAQ will ultimately bottom out? Is it in the 1800-1850 range or is it in the 1500-1600 range.

Three things that will keep my cash on the sidelines until mid-April:

(1) AG will probably cut the interest rates "only" .50. Meanwhile, the bonds traders are increasingly anticipating a .75 rate cut. The .50 cut may disappoint and lead to a sell-off.

(2) The first two weeks in April have been brutal for the last three years, as investors raise cash to pay taxes by selling off losers, stocks they have held too long that have not "bounced back" as anticipated.

(3) The next earnings warning season and set of earnings reports will continue to disappoint. I think this coming quarter will give us the worst set of earnings we will see this year.

Having said that, I will be at least 50% invested by April 15th. While the markets will continue to be volatile over the summer, it is difficult for me to bet against the Fed, declining interest rates, and increasing money supply.
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