MAR 15 INDEX UPDATE
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Per my short-term technicals the DOW/SPX/OEX are CLASS 2 BUYs, and the NAZ/NDX are in the OVERSOLD REGION.
The important development yesterday was that the SOX and BTK did not selloff significantly, whereby the NAZ/NDX were able to hold above MON's intraday lows.
Also the NAZ NET NEW HIGHs-LOWs only deteriorated slightly and and was still slightly better than MON's readings.
One weak area in the NAZ besides the big caps, was the RUT which did produce a lower low, but at about the same degree as the NAZ/NDX.
As mentioned often, right before an important announcement, my short-term technicals statistically return to the midrange, whether its a few days before or right at the FOMC meeting. Since there are only 3 trading days left before the FOMC meeting, I suspect that the rally that started off of MON's lows in the NAZ/NDX should continue into the FOMC meeting, then the outcome of the meeting will have effect on further direction of the market.
Im not going to guess what Greenspan will do, so if this rally does continue into the FOMC meeting, I will at least partially hedge my long positions.
Horizontal resistance areas for the NDX:
1810-1840
1940
2030
Trendline resistance next TUE around 1950
Regarless of what Greenspan does, I am still expecting a retest down the road. If the market is not happy with the results, then the rally should end quickly and the retest may fail. If the market is happy, then the rally should last longer, and the retest will be further down the road.
Yesterday I did add more UOPIX(long-NDX) in my personal account where Im moved from about 85% cash to about 70% cash. I attempted to also buy it for our website account but I errored in the execution of the post. |
