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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host
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To: BigShoulders who wrote (12971)3/15/2001 1:39:14 PM
From: Boca_PETE  Read Replies (4) of 42834
 
Big Shoulders: RE: ("he has had a number of winners over the years")

Agreed that his gifthorse buy calls at DOW 2900, 3200, 3600, 5400, 6500... were spectacular buy opportunities. And his January 2000 call to raise cash reserves has turned out to be right on for long-term investors who chose not to partake in the CTR calls.

HOWEVER, it occurred to me last night where Bob's logic may have failed on the CTR calls.

- On the way up, Bob told callers to view bear markets as a mirror image of bull markets. Following that logic though, throwing money in long at gifthorse pullback lows (ie. going with the overall long-term bull trend of the market) would equate to selling short at tops of Counter-Trend Rallies (ie. also going with the overall long-term down trend of the market), not buying QQQ long at the start of Counter-Trend Rallies (which amounts to going against the overall long-term market trend.

- Had he followed this logic through in advising subscribers, he might have pulled off his attempted scalping of profits out of CTR1 and might still be reaping profits from that short call. After all, he did predict the area of the CTR1 high (NAZ 4200-4400) at least a month in advance of the second and last visit to that area in mid-September.

JMHO - FWIW

Any objective comments on the above thoughts would be appreciated.

P
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