Was looking at the following document last night, which
summarizes all of the stage x alert days since 1998:
caiso.com
Noticed two trends:
1. # of days alerts were issued:
1998: 7 all in summer, 5 stage 2, 0 stage 3
1999: 5 all in summer, 1 stage 2, 0 stage 3
2000: 55 Summer -12/31, 36 stage 2, 1 stage 3
2001: 49 through today, 46 stage 2, 34 stage 3
2. Power demand triggering levels have dropped from about
40,000 MW in 1998 to about 30,000 MW in 2001. Assume this
is due to the loss of hydropower generation capacity.
This data clearly indicates, beyond ANY reasonable doubt,
that they are in BIG trouble this summer. They have to make
up the shortfall with NG. They don't have the turbines,
they don't have the NG, they aren't paying their neighbors
for power they used, and their neighbors have their own
problems due to the regions lack of hydropower. IMHO it is
ALREADY too late to avoid rolling blackouts this summer.
California will be sucking up every spare Kilowatt and
cubic foot of NG that is available in the west this summer,
regardless of the cost. |
