Hi Medroogies on the ORCL thread ...
Message 15511288
<<For some reason, I am missing 3 posts...it could be that I ignored someone...but I'm not showing that. Whose posts are they?>>
Apparently you find NYCB’s messages so distressful that you chose to Ignore then and all the replies to them.
You may find his current post equally distressful. NYCB talks the way he does because NY is a jungle, and he is as distressed at the state of matters as you are, being possibly closer to the scene of killing than you. Un-ignore works as well as Ignore.
Message 15508069
<<No such thing as house money? Okay, so all winnings are your money no matter what - right? I disagree.>>
I understand your point of view.
<<If things really do go as badly as you predict, all holdings will be essentially worthless. Not just Worth Less. How much can you lose when your banks go bust? When deflation causes gold to tank?>>
I predicted Nasdaq at 900-1400, DJIA at 6000, S&P500 at 900. 1989-1995 levels, which does not require all holdings to be worthless. Some banks will go bust or necessitate bailout, and this would not be unprecedented.
Deflation to sink gold? Maybe. Given the state of deflation in Japan, the lease rate on gold, and the Japanese interest rate, it would make mathematical sense for the Japanese to abandon their currency, buy gold and lease it out to Shorts, further drive down price of gold, buy more gold, lease it out, drive gold mining companies to shutdown successively lower cost mines, and then put on the BIG SHORT SQUEEZE.
Come to think of it, as the US$ and US interest rate goes south, this gold carry trade could get real interesting. Imagine, a world where all interest rates are lower than the gold lease rate. The awesome battle between paper fiat and gold species will be then joined, pitting gravity vs. CNBC, and Newton vs. Green$pan.
<<Mortgage loans are at historic peaks, but that is a gauge of little. Home ownership is at a peak, too.>>
You mean home non-ownership. Soon to be falling prices may be temporary when viewed historically, but may be permanent for all practical purposes. Debt would not be temporary, but permanent, until bankruptcy and market clearing price met.
<<The market is the ultimate arbiter - and the market abhors predictions. That is why I don't like predictions.>>
This whole conversation started with ORCL’s immediate and long-term prospects, namely your predictions and mine.
<<Look at any WS analyst today.>>
We agree that they are not analysts.
Message 15508127
<<On the other, you discuss investing and earning. On this, we don't disagree at all, you just have different time frames.>>
Yup, agreed.
<<You seem to be a wealthy guy from a wealthy family.>>
What there was, was taken away, and what there is, was built from scratch. I am therefore extra careful with what I have. It was fun the first time, probably less fun the second time.
<<Insider information from time to time, perhaps a little help from a friend here and there.>>
Bill Gross recently said there is no compelling value in corporate bond market;
Warren Buffet recent said there is no compelling value in the stock market, and none in his stock portfolio;
Larry Ellison recent said, not in so many words, “Sell!”;
FED governor recently said “go buy an SUV”;
Green$pan said he will cut rates if he has to. Hayami said the same thing.
Markets say “Down”.
What insider information do you have to know before you act on the information available to you?
<<The vast majority of people in the world don't get those benefits.>>
You mean they do not act on the information they are able to get, but choose to ignore.
<<"Sharing" your viewpoints isn't a help, either, unless you can substantially back them up with hard facts and hard theory, which you've done neither. You've intimated, hinted, and engaged in a lot of cryptic association.>>
Talk to my ‘buddies’ listed above. They also simply intimated, hinted and engaged in a lot of selling and/or not buying.
Message 15508308
Message 15505751
<<I am limited in my options due to the (relatively) small amount of investment capital I have available.>>
In the USA stock markets, you have REITs, various HOLDERS, foreign and domestic old economy gambits, boring mining and resource gambits, bond funds of various risk categories, etc etc, besides technology and NewEc gambits, and certainly besides ORCL.
But, as long as one is only holding ORCL, or NewEc shares, I suppose it then is OK … only a 50% drop as opposed to 95% drop.
<<… will perform as well, because if it did, the manager would be snapped up by one of those high paying firms.>>
I think all of us on SI manage our own money.
<<But there is still a divide. And it isn't a knowledge divide in the sense of education. It is a knowledge divide in the sense of privilege, network, and accountability.>>
I assure you I am on your side of the divide.
<<If my company goes bust tomorrow (it won't, but it could happen) I lose out on a huge amount of potential as my options become worthless. My CEO, on the other hand, loses far less. He has already made vast sums in income, and sale of options, than I could ever hope to. He'll have paper losses, but his lifestyle will remain intact. Mine won't.>>
This is precisely why you have to be more careful. Your CEO is selling, not buying, because his buddies are selling, not buying, because Abby is helping them to unload, on you.
<<Given all information, the best place to have your money over a long time frame is the stock market and its 11% annualized return over 100 years. That's a risk I can afford to take.>>
The market will most likely make the 11% long term return over a very long period of time. We have no disagreement on this, and old Warren and Bill will agree with us. Now, when, precisely, did you start counting, 1989, 1994, 1999, 2000 March? This is an important question because “reversion to the mean” may dictate a better strategy of “run and hide” to sidestep the possible L______ and enjoy the eventual_____I.
<<That said, I have some cash positions. But most of that is often used for unseen costs and circumstances (mostly personal that don't need explanation). I also own some annuities and a house. But for real long term capital appreciation, I'm not likely to get better returns anywhere else besides the market.>>
As long as one is not margined at the brokers, leveraged by the credit cards, spending home equity, and blindly following Abby, while ignoring Warren and Bill, it should not be cataclysmic, just bad.
Amongst my postings, I have repeatedly said total escape from the blood letting is not possible, as one will get the blood taken out via stock crash, bond default, work termination, or money debasement. Hedging in face of uncertainty is a way to trade a little bit of certain blood letting for not having one’s head handed to one’s limbless torso on a platter.
Chugs, Jay |
