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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting

QCOM 171.39

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10:22 AM EST

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To: Caxton Rhodes who wrote (8590)	3/16/2001 5:58:43 AM
From: Ken S.	Read Replies (1) of 196545

"If you believe the article below, by 2006 1.7 Billion mobile phone users, 1230 GSM/based and 470M CDMA based. Today there are about 490M GSM and 90M CDMA. So Growth rate for GSM is 251% or 20% for 5 years. CDMA is 522% or 39% a year, nearly twice the growth rate of GSM." Rough Projections based on above. If find QCOM's 90 mil projection of chips this year, far exceeds this forecast. 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 0 1 2 3 4 5 Subs GSM 494 593 712 854 1025 1230 CDMA 91 126 175 243 338 470 Total 585 719 887 1097 1363 1700 Sub Growth GSM 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% CDMA 39% 39% 39% 39% 39% 39% Market % GSM 85% 82% 80% 78% 75% 72% CDMA 15% 18% 20% 22% 25% 28% By these rates, year 12 (unlucky 2013) we exceed GSM's market share and 150% world population penetration. Subs GSM 4,407 CDMA 4,712 Total 9,119 Sub Growth GSM 20% CDMA 39% Market % GSM 48% CDMA 52% I think the short term growth rate for CDMA is higher based on QCOM' projection and replacement rate being a more significant growth factor. Ken

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