hi UF,
i just read this....and i am sitting here wondering what she sees.
abby has been right for a long long time....in the past 6 or 8 corrections that i have followed her advice, she correctly called the bottom everytime. she even called the top last year. we did not want to hear it then. yet we all agree with her now ...you can quibble with a few of her stock picks but her market timing instincts have been good.
Yahoo - Abby Cohen Says S&P 500 Undervalued
biz.yahoo.com
McCabe from merrill is another great market timer...he seldom makes a pure bull call but he is now...he is calling for a serious rebound...possibly to be followed by another bottom test. if you follow McCabe, you know he likes to predict bottom tests as a hedge when he is bullish.
this is what i see...
clorox warned.
dupont sees a worldwide slowdown.
truck sales are still dead.
car sales are way down.
RV and boat sales...ditto.
the gorillas warned....intc, csco , orcl, msft.
ericy and nok warned.
dell, cpq warned.
4 airlines have warned in a week. (i said they would be next)
OPEC wants to cut oil production just as we enter the high demand summer months to drive up prices.
it looks awful out there....it is a recession.
the good news is that the market begins to rebound 1/2 way thru it...and recessions last less than one year.
clearly the McCabes and Cohens know that and are placing their bets according to that formula. they are betting that we are 1/2 way through this smelly stuff and the turnaround is set to begin.
here is another view on that.
The end is near
www2.marketwatch.com
i have been very concerned about japan and the effect it may have on American banks...after much research, i am convinced that our exposure is quite small...the problem has been there a long time and our banks have had plenty of time to protect themselves...i also believe the imf will bail out japan if necessary...similar to the russian bail out...we simply cannot afford to allow the world's 2nd largest economy to sink and we won't. realistically though, any rush to withdraw funds from their banks will cause some fear in the markets should it happen.
AG says the economy is not that bad...consumer spending continues, the housing market is ok. in the past 6 weeks, he has taken major league steps to increase money supply....that will continue and that is good.
for all the talk about inflation...it remains quite tame. it almost doesn't matter right now...the fed will choose inflation over a recession every time...they will do whatever it takes to pull the economy back up. interest rates are going down.
i follow 3 gold stocks, i use them as leading indicators of several things including inflation...nem, asa and hm are down sharply 5 days in a row
a tax cut is coming to increase consumer spending some more...and some increases in government spending are coming as well.
this has been one topsy turvy ride...i have been on both sides of the fence for 100 days...but then, i expected a turnaround in november. it did not happen and that rattled me...but it will come.
it will come simply because, computers, cars, trucks, etc., all wear out and need replacing. it will come because the biggest source of economic fuel, innovation, continues unabated.
imo tech is the place to be because, contrary to current popular belief, the internet continues to grow exponentially. there are problems for sure...hell anything growing that fast has problems. but, the world has committed to the net at every level of government, education and business. the problems are being solved on the fly.
the expansion of fiber optics and wireless will continue...the use of the net to increase business productivity has just begun. csco, orcl, sebl, msft, intc will be in the middle of all of it.
even the fundamental instrument that we all immediately think about when we think tech, the PC, is going to change...wireless and embedded processing looks like the wave to me. wind's os has a huge lead here.
i have said this for a few years...it is becoming a reality...every electrical device in the world will be connected to the net including (or starting with) your electric meter...there is only one company with a complete interconnectivity solution and it enjoys the full support of csco, sunw and hon...echelon (elon)...appliance makers are beginning to produce echelon enabled appliances for consumer use in asia and europe. contractors are building elon controlled buildings on every continent now.
it is going to happen for two good reasons...the first is energy conservation...the second is control. you will have complete control of every electrical device you own from anywhere.
energy costs are driving changes in even the most fundamental technical innovation...light is changing. the use of long lasting, low energy, light sources and other products has begun.
irf has just cut flourescent costs by 25%...irf has other proprietary solutions that are now worth $10 per vehicle...that may grow to $100 per vehicle within a few years...all to save energy.
with >90% market share and a huge patent portfolio...cree is the gorilla of mono-crystalline silicon carbide...SiC.
your next car may have as many as 65-90 cree LEDs. VW, bmw, audi, mercedes...(ford, renault and citroen are next)...that number is expected to grow to 300 per car in 7 years. SiC based LEDs are the only solution that meets ESD (electro static discharge requirements for use inside vehicles). airplane use is almost here. your next cell phone (panasonic or nokia) will probably use cree LEDs. traffic lights have just begun converting to LEDs...general household lighting is on the horizon.
reliable, consistent, high bandwidth to your vehicle is coming...it will require a special antenna. kvhi has it and it is flat...you will not notice it on your vehicle roof. this little company has several other cool products...including satellite products, the yellow, first down, line you see on nfl football, compass sensors on golf carts, gps navigation systems for military tanks, ships, yachts, and RVs, and a fiber optic product that will be introduced this month.
miniature full-view screens...sounds like an anomoly doesn't it?...screens that are smaller than current cell phone screens but provide a view equivalent to a 17" monitor are here...kopn and mvis have them. soon, we will too.
all tech companies are not hurting. much of the world has no copper phone lines and never will....high speed wireless access will be their solution. the former CEO of dell canada has a little company (wavc) that has a nifty high bandwidth wireless solution. he has a sales force that covers 35 countries...sales ramp is just beginning...a week ago he predicted a 20x increase in sales by the end of 2002.
we have been studying stock charts...cnbc likes to post index and stock charts imo to focus on the bad...to create unrest....remember, the nature of news is controversy and they are hell-bent to provide it.
i like to remember that charts are historical, a look at the past...tech is thriving, but you must look forward to see it.
unclewest |
