Hi John, what I've always had a problem with, and I'd propose most investors have also.. is that there are short occilations and long trend cycles in a stocks prices. If the trend is up then buying the dips makes tons of money. If the trend is down, buying puts on every rally makes money.
As for the size of the pie, I believe is always getting bigger.. by that I mean more participants are becoming part of the world wide electronics community. Yes, there are new competitors and some sectors come and go, but its going to continue to expand for many years to come.
Back to short and long cycles.. here's a chart to work with, not the best but ok.. finance.yahoo.com
Note CPQ is much more in keeping with the S&P, MOT more volatile and near its low of late '98 which is support area.
Compare CPQ to DELL
finance.yahoo.com
both look ready to rally back to 200 day moa
Compare to CSCO.. which is devastated by comparison finance.yahoo.com
Last CPQ moving averages which by themselves mean nothing except that institutions (and CPQ is a heavy institutional ownership) use moving averages to keep score.. finance.yahoo.com
Note we're trying to get over 50 day, then we'd stall at 200 and play the 50/200 game like in Feb to October last year.
Same moving averages for MOT finance.yahoo.com
or since 1975 chart finance.yahoo.com
I know what you're thinking.. charts don't mean much and you're right but that's the map big money uses and it often coincides with other measures like levels of PE, book value, inflation and what not.
Frankly the US charts bother me because they're very much like the Japanese charts of the mid eighties.. and their bear markets never turned up except to catch investors again... This is the only chart group I could find from a quick net search that offered a quick comparison, haven't read the person's site or message.. but its interesting just the same: lowrisk.com
Lets hope MOT CPQ and the rest get some legs |
