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Strategies & Market Trends : Intraday Updates, Analysis & Strategies for Daytraders
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To: WaveSeeker who wrote (419)3/16/2001 11:33:22 AM
From: Dave Gore  Read Replies (1) of 589
 
Wave, I know, but during the most recent history (which carries the most weight) the VIX near 35 has resulted in a rally. The most recent patterns tend to repeat themselves and until they are broken, I tend to trust them.

Am I crazily going long here? No, but I am very aware now that if a rally starts there is more of a chance that it will catch because of the VIX which most people watch and put some faith in. We also have a Fed Cut coming and stocks are cheap and oversold. Will the rally be long lived? Probably not as that is also the pattern.

All these things tend to put the odds in favor of the long side here. Doesn't mean for sure, just better than 50-50, imo, and in Vegas and in the Market, 70-30% odds that we will be higher next week than we are now are odds I like. That said, I still watch the indicators rather than "expect" or "hope", two emotions that are of no use whatsoever in this unforgiving Market.

The real key to a bigger rally is whether we can rally and then withstand those who want to sell into it, and keep going up. If we can do that, we will start to make the shorts nervous and bring back in those that sold too soon, get some short covering, and get some long emotion coming into the buying.
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